Bathos Number 7: the Doctrine

Subject: things truly changed today, again
Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2001

*the one amazing and brutal truth that has emerged from Vietnam and WW II is
that airpower had little impact on its own merits. [ Let me ignore Nagasaki
and Hiroshima for a moment - and in any case that power is best delivered
via a ballistic missile.]  In the bombing of German strategic supplies and
industry, and the terror bombing of German and Japanese non-combative
people, almost no impact was made in terms that led to the defeat of the
enemy.  More bombs were used against Vietnam than in WW II, and that only
seemed to force resolve and actually raised a grim morale in the enemy.
Where airpower was truly effective, deadly, and almost always brought
victory, is when it first secures the air for your own operations and then
provides support to ground troops.  This is what happened in WW II, Korea,
and Vietnam when air power was a positive. Vietnam was clearly lost not from
a superior enemy, but because we had borders and limitations and could not
occupy all the enemies territory.  We did not want to, after learning how
the French fared in both Vietnam and in Algeria.  So, all one can gleam
from history is that after securing control over air, and doing preliminary
support of ground troops by disrupting supply, any further air attacks will
only serve to toughen the enemy, raise the enemies morale, and open oneself
to possible war crimes against non-combative.  The reason, or one of the
reasons,  why bin Laden felt he could start this campaign was observing our
Powel Doctrine against Iraq, our political response to Somalia, and our
limitation to Vietnam, and our dependency to air power.  Our scramble for
coalition also shows a power which is not totally sure of their methods or
reasons.  We are acting to form,  and so far bin Laden has been masterful in
his analysis and strategy.  I am sure, after studying all the military
information available - and our eagerness to sell our products to the world
means that even a view back issues of Popular Science can give a neat
summation of our most sophisticated weaponry - means that elaborate tunnel
system has been pre-arranged anticipating this current attack.  One must
keep in mind that there are two countries that we are attacking, the
Taliban, which have been basically dupes of bin Laden and offering him real
estate, and the Al Quadda "country" which is pan-Islamic and which is an
international group of perhaps the most battle hardened storm troopers that
now exist, the 055 Brigade.  

This all means the following.

If we do not cease this reliance on air techno-wizardry we will likely lose
this battle, for American will, if there are no new outrages, will dissipate
and will not be strong enough to support the ground war that has to be
enacted to succeed.  We were shocked and amazed to find how well the Viet
Cong not only prevailed but even prospered despite the incredible amount of
air power applied.  Saddam is very much still an ongoing enemy, despite the
incredible destruction delivered to him via the air.  

But our Powel Doctrine and our actions in Somalia has convinced bin Laden
that we have little interest in a protracted ground war.

There is no way to prevail but to fight a ground war.

A ground war will result in heavy casualties.

To fight a protracted ground war we must have the following if Americans
will allow blood to be spilt and lives lost:  

1.  Absolute honesty in regards to motives and objectives.  We have only one
just motive which our enemy and our own people would understand.  Justice
and revenge for a grievous insult to our sovereign power.  It is totally
justified to use the word revenge.  NO sovereign power can withstand such an
outrage and expect to exist in the future.  Use of words like "freedom" and
"liberty" and large flags and yellow ribbons is fine for a nice 3 month war,
but will only betray us as all know it is, at heart, a lie.  Freedom is not
at risk here, except for the obvious attack on our own freedom  by ourselves
by the granting of extraordinary police power which we all know will become
permanent.  Our proven reluctance to commit ground troops and fight a land
war only shows to bin Laden that our motives are empty rhetoric.   But
unlike the invasion of Kuwait as a questionable motive for Desert Storm, we
are absolutely morally correct and just in killing all who are peripherally
or directly involved with the attack on the World Trade Center, be they man,
women, or child.  In short a destruction total of any society which
nurtures, delivers, or supports such action.  We owe this to every fireman.
That is a just motive.  Bush has a fallen cop's shield in his pocket,
supposedly.  That is the only true and righteous reason for our actions.
That could and will sustain a long drawn out war.  But if our actual motives
is perceived by the populace  to be only the shabby  business interest of
the United States in regards to energy, and our politicians in plutocratic
fashion think that they can mouth such obvious lies and spin, then we
cannot win a ground war for popular will rightfully be enraged with
ourselves and support will be withdrawn.  It is completely unjust and
immoral to fight this war over oil.   Therefore any occupation and ground
war, be it a month or 5 years in its execution, has to be temporary if it is
to be in any sense of justice.  If we do not see a dramatic and near panic
implementation of the elimination of foreign oil dependency, anything Bush
says can be suspect and in the end just be construed as babbling lies.   We
will not win a ground war fought for oil against this enemy and the country
will break down with heavy protests and civil disobedience will result.  A
mother can understand why her son has to die for NYC firemen, it is correct;
but that mother will attack the White House if he is to die for Connoco.
Bin Laden is assuming we will fight for Connoco and the mothers of America
will, in the end, bring him victory.  We therefore must start, fight, and
end this war with the sole objective of gaining justice for the WTC.  While
this will seem barbaric and callous to almost all in our "coalition", it is
actually the only just reason for the war, the only reason we woudl win, and
the only reason that will be seen as rational in history.

2.  Absolute honesty in communication with citizenry.  Spin still goes on.
Bin Laden has already won a massive victory by the Bush administration
falling into the trap of spin and lies and treating people like sheep.  In
peace Americans are one of the most embarrassing people in the planet - just
go to Disneyland and look around during times of peace and plenty.  But it
is a mistake to assume that the same sheep like quality will be in place
during time of war.  In war, no country in history has shown a sudden
ability to step up to the challenge mentally and physically as the United
States.  Bush and his team have not trusted the populace in making this
transition and may have permanently destroyed their credibility over the
handling of the anthrax.  Whoever sent it doesn't matter, what does matter
is it is obvious that when the real dangerous stuff starts, if it does, a
citizen has to take action in his own hands as his political leadership is
venal and lies.  Ask any postal worker. The emergence of small pox, if it
occurs, will now result  in a full out panic. This would not be the case if
we had a complete and honest discussion as the anthrax attack started.   I
do not know if it was design, but the use of weapons grade anthrax cloaked
in low tech delivery was giving our officials too much of a temptation to
lie, to assume they could explain the anthrax by the means of delivery
rather than face the sophistication of the weapon.  They just couldn't
resist it.  Now all credibility of health officials during this most
important time is close to being permanently destroyed.  To restore this,
Bush must be Roosevelt like, not in terms of social policy, but in the
ability to destroy close friends for mistakes and reward and promote
enemies.  He isn't doing this and it dismays me.  He must restore
credibility.  Bin Laden is counting on Bush handling these crisis in the
fashion he is, for this does the most to promote terror out of proportion to
its actual reality.

3.  When the ground war starts, it must be non-humane, vicious, and
terrible.   War is the ultimate obscenity.  There is no polite war.  Sherman
is the masterful example of  how we should behave when in Afghanistan. If we
could do this to our own people we can do it to Afghanis.   Destruction must
be terrible,  fierce, indiscriminate, and total.  Afghanis must in the
future be telling stories to  their great great great grandchildren about
the Americans.  We must enter the folk lore of the Afghanis. Our retribution
must become a permanent part of their culture.   We must be terrible enough
to overcome tribal and traditional heritage and loyalties.  Along with
Sherman, a good read is to consider almost all the great Roman generals and
their protection of Rome against barbarians and their policies.   America
must inspire fear and loathing and terror to those who cannot or do not wish
to deal with our principles and society.  We must kill.  Revenge is a fine
and just motivator.  And it is justice.  After this is imposed on every man,
woman, and child in Afghanistan and surrender is general and cultural - then
we can bestow prosperity or just leave them alone.  It must be clear that we
will come back quickly if they sponsor another outrage.

4.  We must not confuse our enemies reasons or motivation with the actions
we take  from now on.  All Americans deep down know, or at least suspect,
that these young Arabs who flew these planes were brave and courageous
warriors.  This attack was brilliant and so more terrible as the enemies
motives, from his perspective and even to some degree from our own, are
just.  But that has nothing to do with our retribution and response.
Absolutely nothing.  Perhaps the most powerful thing Bush could do is admit
that oil and foreign policy of the US has been a disaster and might have
perpetuated injustice abroad to a degree that people take desperate actions.
That we will discuss remedies with these people's successors.  That we will
right these wrongs, but not with them.  There is no dialogue with them.  We
cannot expect to ally ourselves with people so loathsome as the Saud tribe
and emerge clean.  We are reluctant to speak to this reality as it seems
sedition and unpatriotic at best, disrespectful and an obvious threat to the
war effort to speak with any rationalization as to why they did this
terrible thing.  But causality is not culpability. Though our actions caused
it, and perhaps understandably so, we have absolutely nothing to do with the
responsibility of such a despicable act. But to recognize the reality of our
enemy only makes us strong and to  be honest in this way would only be
seditious if spins and lies are required to keep us involved, to allow our
blood to be spilt if we are fighting this war for oil.  If we fight solely
for revenge and justice for harm rendered us, it matters not and we can
perceive the enemy for all their strengths as spin and lies are not
required.  Who now does not perceive the terrible way we under-estimated the
Viet Cong.  At the time, it would be dangerous to perceive the enemy in an
honest light as that would destroy the many lies and spins the likes of
McNamara were sprouting.  To see the Viet Cong realistically and then
thereby have a chance at defeating him would force honesty as to what the
US was doing in the area.  In this war, we have to be completely honest so
we do not underestimate the enemy and we calculate a way to defeat him.  So,
fully admit that our enemy are not bizarre religious nuts with no semblance
of reason.  They are battle hardened and very successful freedom fighters
who have already defeated the Soviet Union and avail themselves fo the best
in technology and strategy that is available to them.  They are motivated by
passionate  belief they are right for not only spiritual but temporal
justice.  But this does not man that we are any less resolved to their
complete and total destruction for we must establish justice for the WTC.
After the war is concluded we can right these wrongs we have inflicted.  It
is important to face the realities of our enemy because after that, and only
then, can we have the will to do the terrible things required and endure the
casualties, for then our objectives are clear, honest, and right.  Bush has
a shield in his pocket.  I would suggest that the nation with dignity and
respect request the shields found of all  the firemen and cops who died at
the WTC, and that then they are passed with solemn seriousness between all
our soldiers and recruits, and all are required to swear respect and
vengeance over them.  At the successful conclusion of the war they would be
interned at a national monument.   Sounds bizarre?  Will who will fight
better or with more will, men after that ceremony or men who ponder the
likes of Powel and Rumsfeld describing the Saudi's as not bad folks really
and doing well?  

The above points are the "*** Doctrine".   I offer that if we do not
follow all four of these points, specific and honest motive, honesty in our
government communicating with the citizenry, a complete dedicated ground war,
and respect and identification of our enemies true traits and motives, if we
do not do all of that  we have at best a 50/50 chance of winning.  If we
pursue all those points with fervor, we are assured victory.

We must always remember that the purpose of terrorism, the reason it is
launched is never because of what the terrorist can actually do to you, but
what you will do to yourself from terror.

So far bin Laden is ahead of us in this conflict and winning.  

Friedman in today's NYTimes:

"My advice: Try not to focus on any of this. Focus instead on the firemen
who rushed into the trade center towers without asking, "How much?" Focus on
the thousands of U.S. reservists who have left their jobs and families to go
fight in Afghanistan without asking, "What's in it for me?" Unlike the
free-riders in our coalition, these young Americans know that Sept. 11 is
our holy day - the first day in a just war to preserve our free,
multi-religious, democratic society. And I don't really care if that war
coincides with Ramadan, Christmas, Hanukkah or the Buddha's birthday - the
most respectful and spiritual thing we can do now is fight it until justice
is done."

The only way out of this and to prevail is to realize  September 11, 2001 is
a holy day, a sacred day.