back
Securing Corporate America
To: The Friends & Clients of LJH
From: Jim Hedges
I thought that you'd enjoy reading the attached summary from the Kroll Associates Client Seminar held this past Friday entitled "Threat &Crisis Management: Securing Corporate America."
The first speaker was Norb Garrett, President of Kroll's Business Investigations and Intelligence Group, formerly with the CIA, (worked for the CIA in the Middle East, South Asia and the Philippines for over 20years). He and the speaker that followed discussed "Terrorism: The Current State of Affairs": He remarked that there is a widely held belief in Washington that Osama Bin Ladin (OBL) is not a strategic thinker and not as clever as most people believe him to be, and that, in fact, he is believed to be quite politically naive. He stated that many people in Washington believe that OBL's recent acts were not meant to divide the US politically and to change our way of life, but that they were probably just a "punishment" he had long been wanting to inflict because the US had "corrupted Holy Lands" (US presence in Saudi Arabia). More over, he stated that he doubts that OBL knew how far reaching the ramifications would be to our banking, financial and transportation systems. He said that although OBL's motivations appear to be primarily religious, there is a power play issue with his wanting access to all Islamic holy shrines. Regarding the threat of chemical and biological warfare, he thinks that it will be tough for OBL to get his hand on "enough" of either because he believes that even third world despots like Saddam Hussein most likely are unwilling to put these in his hands, knowing that he is capable of using such materials against any group, without regard at all to he consequences. He noted that one of the US Government's most important strategies against this and OBL generally will be to act quickly enough to obstruct the flow of funds to OBL from sources not necessarily our apparent opponents but who, nonetheless, believe that America's culture to should be "reigned in on". Regarding the current threat to US persons, he believes it has not diminished since September 11 because of the number of loose cells in the US and elsewhere. Regarding the mop-up and follow-up that we are seeing in Western Europe, he said the belief is that these people most likely were somehow connected to the events of September 11, which is why they were detectable. He thinks the threats to the US are more likely to be against US interests abroad, with the worse threats being in those countries with the highest levels of political instability, such as Pakistan, Yemen, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt and the Philippines. However, he said that US commercial interests in even the more stable countries are most likely to be "soft targets".
The next speaker was Ted Price, the President of Kroll's Crisis Management Group, who, prior to joining Kroll, completed a 35 year career at the CIA where his final position was Deputy Director of Operations responsible for clandestine operations. He more or less agreed with most of what Norb Garrett had said, but put particular emphasis on the threats to US commercial interests abroad. He noted that, when stepped up security creates roadblocks to attacks on embassies and US Government and related political personnel, the terrorists are more likely to go after commercial representations of the US, such as entertainment figures, fast food establishments, chain stores and the like. He, unlike Garrett, does believe that there is a possibility of either biological or chemical warfare, such as poisoning of our water supply. He emphasized, however, that most foreign governments are sharing intelligence with us to root out the extremists, and provided a long anecdote in connection with the arrest of Ramsey Yousef for the 1993 bombing of the WTC. Apparently, almost all of our intelligence on the specific matter came initially from a "walkin" at one of the foreign embassies in Southeast Asia, which corroborated information contained in computers gathered from an earlier raid on Yousef's group there. Unfortunately, Price spoke repeatedly about the many prior warnings the US had that Islamic fundamentalists we planning on "taking down a US commercial plane". He also gratuitously noted that when Yousef was in captivity and being flown back to the US to stand trial in NY, he looked down at the Twin Towers and said "if I had enough money I would have blown the Towers up completely" (or something to that effect).I am not quite sure why he had to let us in on that little known fact, it was unnecessary in my opinion. I suppose the good news is that we may have access to more of the relevant information than we are led to believe, the bad news is that we haven't been heeding the call. Jerome Hauer, Managing Director of Kroll's Crisis and Consequence Group, who previously served as NYC's Director of Emergency Management and who was one of six scientists to brief Clinton on biological terrorism, spoke on the topic of "Crisis Management: A Strategic Security Plan" .He is currently engaged to testify before Congress this week. He stated generally that he agreed with Norb Garrett that OBL most likely did not know how extensive the damage would be, particularly in terms of lives lost. Regarding the biggest threat in the near term (over the next 4-8weeks), he believes it is from bombs and guns, most likely in the form of suicide bombers. In terms of biological and chemical warfare, he said that the threats from chemical agents like those used in Japan are not too strong because of the difficulty of dissemination. He said that the greatest threats come from our own highways, from the trucks being used to transport dangerous chemicals. In this respect, he said that highjackings by terrorists and the use of those agents against US persons is a distinct possibility. In his opinion, the real threats are from the biological agents. He noted that with the break up of the Soviet Union where much of this was being manufactured, many of the scientists had to leave and seek gainful employment elsewhere. Many of them had to move on to countries with whom the US has strained relations. He noted that some of those scientists could have left with sufficient seed to start new cultures, and that they only needed a very small amount for these purposes (the size of a lipstick container). In his opinion, smallpox is the biggest threat, because more than 50% of the US population is not immunized, andpre-1972 vaccines are no longer effective. He noted that there are only about15 million vaccine doses left in the US, and that these may not even be effective because it is likely that the Russians have genetically engineered a new strain of the virus.
In terms of Corporate America, he said that Kroll is being flooded with calls from corporations about how they can protect their employees (e.g., gas masks, HVAC filters, detectors, antibiotics). Here-emphasized that the general public should not seek to be vaccinated because of the high likelihood that the vaccines would be ineffective anyway. He also said it would be a huge mistake for people to stockpile antibiotics, noting that many members of the medical profession have been getting endless calls for stockpiles of antibiotics. Regarding gasmasks, he said that with respect to biological agents, since these are released clandestinely, gas masks are ineffective because the public would not know when they have been hit. He said that they also have very limited use in chemical warfare unless one is prepared to carry a mask around everywhere, and even then there are problems with the gas masks being used properly. He did, however, recommend gasmasks for high profile individuals who could be specific targets. He noted that there are almost no gas masks left in NY to buy, and that most of the Army Navy stores have sold out as well. His sad point was that there is little that the general public can dot protect themselves against either biological or chemical warfare. In respect of Corporate America, he said the biggest threat is to HVAC systems. He noted that these are the most vulnerable aspects of any building, noting that they are not protected in any way (no alarms, no security). He said that because the threat on smaller scales is real, people need to take action to counteract those threats by addressing these weak spots. He does not believe that OBL's group has the ability to use chemical warfare for extensive massive destruction, such as at the WTC. He also doubts that OBL's group could do anything effective on an extensive massive scale using biological weapons. He stated that on a very broad social level, people should expect more security measures being taken all over the country (metal detectors, security props etc). He sees that these will need to be produced (even if ab initio) and implemented in all buildings, public and private.
Ted Price gave some final remarks about the increased interest by Corporate America in services such as those provided by Kroll. He noted, for example, that AIG has made clear their need for increased services in crisis management and planning.