A virtual coalition

By Moshe Arens
(a former minister of defense)

With the memory of the Gulf War still fresh in his mind, is it any wonder
that ever since September 11, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has been
actively pursuing the formation of a grand coalition against terrorism that
will include Arab states, maybe even Yasser Arafat and Syria's dictator,
Bashar Assad, but will exclude Israel - just like the one that former U.S.
president George Bush Snr. so successfully put together over ten years ago?

But as should have been clear from the beginning, this coalition is not
going to be anything like the previous one: at best, it is going to be a
virtual coalition, of little use in America's war against terrorism that was
declared by President George W. Bush Jr. There is the ever-present danger of
trying to fight the last war, even when the next one is going to be entirely
different.

During the Gulf War, Arab states felt themselves threatened by Saddam
Hussein's plans of aggression. The Saudis thought they would be next in line
after Iraq had digested Kuwait; Syria's dictator, Hafez Assad, had a long
standing feud with Saddam Hussein; and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak had reason to
fear Iraq's hegemony over the Arab World if Saddam Hussein went unpunished
for his aggression against Kuwait. At the time, these countries were natural
supporters of the U.S. plan to free Kuwait; and Saudi Arabia served as the
essential staging ground for General Schwartzkopf's forces.

Today, the leaders of these countries are much more concerned with growing
domestic support for Osama bin Laden in the streets of their cities than
with any imminent threat to their regimes posed by the wanted terrorist. The
attempt to induce Iran, a country with a long record of state-sponsored
terrorism, to join the war against terror can only tarnish the moral image
of the coalition Powell is trying to stitch together.

These countries are all unlikely members of a coalition to bring bin Laden
to heel. The same can be said for Arafat, whose acts of terror have served
as an example to bin Laden's hijackers and whose followers in Judea, Samaria
and the Gaza Strip have been seen celebrating the destruction of New York's
Twin Towers.

While the U.S. is seeking allies for its campaign against bin Laden's
terrorist network, the latter already has his allies lined up. Bin Laden
will not need to make any extensive diplomatic efforts to secure the aid and
support of the Iranian-sponsored and Syrian-backed Hezbollah, the various
Palestinian terrorist organizations headquartered in Damascus, the
Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad operating in Judea, Samaria and Gaza,
and also the Algerian GIA.

The Iraqis, despite having had denied any complicity in the terrorist attack
on the United States, have advertised their jubilation with the result,
while the Iranians have already disdainfully rejected invitations to join
the coalition against terrorism. It is not too farfetched to assume that the
governments of these countries, or their secret services, will provide
support for bin Laden in the months to come.

Any of these groups can be counted on to attempt to retaliate against the
United States after it has struck effective blows against bin Laden and his
gang of terrorists.

Although the attention of the United States at present seems to be focused
on bin Laden's hideouts in the mountains of Afghanistan, and on the Taliban
who are providing him with a safe haven, sooner or later, his allies will
have to be scrutinized and neutralized. "First things first" is usually a
pretty good strategy, but on occasion, a broad frontal offensive is
required. Focusing solely on bin Laden may turn out to be an inadequate
response to the threat of terrorism leveled against the democracies of the
world.

Much of the job will undoubtedly have to be done by the United States. In
this war, it will enjoy the support of many of the world's democracies. Some
of this support will be no more than half hearted; while some countries will
attempt to secure immunity from terrorism by making deals with the
terrorists themselves. When the going gets rough, the United States will be
left with only its true friends at its side; and one of these will be
Israel.